The state of global order is worrisome. Is the world safer than it was a year ago? Is the danger of serious economic decline of the kind that impacts the vulnerable higher or lower than a year ago? Have institutional arrangements that lubricate and resolve conflicts of interest and challenges strengthened or weakened in the past year?
We should also consider the potential impact the November U.S. election outcome could have on the global order regardless of the result. Even if the incumbent gets over the line his adversary has, on many occasions, indicated disruption and the Wests enemies are counting on this. Chaos is imminent.
In 2007, on a blog that no longer exists, I contemplated a future scenario where a leader with flaws similar to Donald Trump could potentially disrupt the international order.
Whether you like America or not it does not matter. If America imperfect were to either collapse or alternatively, butt out of worldly affairs as Trump often touts, not completely but enough to cause major shifts, then the world may be faced with a global situation of startling instability and great risk. A global shift in power of which the end product cannot be accurately guessed at, nor can it be forecast with any exactitude.
In 2024, the world stands at a pivotal juncture, facing an array of interconnected global challenges that are shaping the course of history. Concern is warranted.
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